### News & Events

## Theme: Uncertainty theory

Theme: Uncertainty theory

2016-03-30

Lecturer: Prof.Liu Baoding

Time: Friday, April 1^{st}of 2016, 15:30p.m.

Venue: Conference Room of the Faculty of Science (4^{th}Floor)

Host: Faculty of Science

Brief Introduction: Prof. Liu Baoding of Tsinghua University is engaged in researchesonUncertainty Theory. He received his bachelor's degree from Nankai University and his master's degree from the National Academy of Science. He obtained his Ph.D in 1993.He is also obtained as the National Distinguished Young Scholars of the country. His work has been translated into Russian and Japanese Language. Prof. Liu Baoding's main contribution is about an axiomatic mathematical system in "Uncertainty Theory" and its series of successful applications.

Content: The application of Probability Theory centers on the idea that the probability distribution we know must be close to the actual frequency. Unfortunately, the problems we often face are on the lack of observation data. Thus, we cannot calculate the frequency of the incident; neither can we determine the probability distribution. In this case, we have to estimate the reliability of events based on the experience and knowledge of experts. The range of values that people estimate is generally much wider than the actual, which leads to the reliability far from frequency. At this point, if we see the reliability as a subjective probability, the result deducted is quite different from our expectations. In order to study this phenomenon, Uncertainty Theory came into being.It does not only become a branch of the axiomatic mathematics, but it also results in a series of successful applications. The lecture focuses on answering questions like"what is Uncertain Theory" and "why should we use the Theory of Uncertainty".